Nukes Were February’s Most Underreported News - America values life; China and Russia do not.

Our rivalries with China and Russia will determine America’s future more than anything, and nuclear weapons could be the determining factor in our relations with them. Two important events happened in February on that front.

First, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the United States and Russia expired.

Second, the Trump administration announced that China had conducted a secret nuclear test in 2020.

What do these mean?

In 2011, the United States and Russia ratified a treaty that would cap the number of U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear weapons. The treaty defined strategic nukes as submarine-launched missiles, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), and heavy nuclear bombers. The two sides agreed to maintain the same numbers for each category of these weapons. The treaty did not include other classes of nuclear weapons, which are often called tactical, nonstrategic, or theater weapons. More importantly, it did not include China.

The treaty was for 10 years, with the option to extend it for another 5 years without a vote of Congress. It was due to expire in Joe Biden’s first month in office, but Biden, in his finite wisdom, extended it for five more years, bringing us to this year.

This has tipped the balance against us in three ways.

First, Russia has been upgrading its theater nuclear weapons, and we have not. The United States would not fight Russia in North America. If there ever is a war, we will fight in Europe and Asia. In that scenario, Russia could use theater nuclear weapons against our ground forces and supply lines in Europe, while we could not.

Second, partiy is itself a disadvantage. You attack what the enemy values the most. Americans care most about our own people. The Russians and Chinese care most about holding onto power and their militaries. Mao Zedong, the founder of the Chinese regime, once even said that he wouldn’t care if 300 million Chinese died in a nuclear war as long as communism triumphed. And he killed 50 million Chinese between 1958 and 1962, so we would believe him. Likewise, the Russian documents that became available after the fall of the Soviet Union proved that the Soviets thought the same way.

In this context, America could not win a war by dropping nuclear weapons on large cities. Besides, we are a moral people and would not do such a thing anyway. But they would. America would nuke their military centers, leadership, production sites, the enemy’s nuclear weapons to neutralize them, and so on. This strategy requires more nuclear weapons than the Russian and Chinese strategies of attacking civilians.

Third, parity with the Russians and Chinese separately is even numerically disadvantageous. In 2022, our two biggest enemies signed a “no limits” agreement. This means that in a potential war with them, we might have to fight them simultaneously. So we need a nuclear force greater than the sum of the two of them. Instead, we have a smaller force than Russia, and China is projected to reach us in the middle of the next decade.

New START put us at a serious disadvantage, and Biden extended it. Now that it has expired, it is detrimental that we catch up. And the Chinese test is further proof.

The Under Secretary of State for Arms Control, Thomas DiNanno, accused the Chinese of a secret test recently. He alleged that the test happened on June 22, 2020. We do not know if we found out at the time or later, but it is understandable that the first Trump administration did not disclose it because of Covid. It is also reasonable that Biden kept it quiet because Democrats are wimps—okay, it isn’t reasonable, but it is the truth. The specific date makes it even more believable. Apparently, China conducted “decoupled” testing.

What does that mean? That’s just bureaucratic lingo for “China dug a huge cavity and tested a nuke in it.” We track tests through seismic signals. Testing in a cavity reduces this signal significantly. But Kazakhstan detected a small earthquake on that day, and we now know what caused it: a Chinese nuclear test. But it is also possible that we have missed other Chinese tests.

The Russians have also been testing their nukes, in violation of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty that Bill Clinton signed. The only side sticking to its word is the United States. Ironically, we do not even have to. Clinton singed the treaty, but Senate never ratified it. So we can easily withdraw, and we have good cause: Everyone else is cheating. But we are not.

Those who are against the withdrawal have three reasons, and one and a half of them are legitimnate.

First, they cite environmental concerns. Valid, but it is also overstated. We have figured out bringing down the environmental risks to near zero.

Second, they claim that computer simulations reliably tell us whether our nukes work. This is half valid. Experts are divided over this. Half of them agree, while the other half say you only know your car works if you start and drive it. I for one would like to be sure that our nukes work now, rather than finding out that they don’t during a shooting war.

Third, they worry that testing would set off an arms race. This is entirely invalid. There already is an arms race. The Chinese are building up. The Russians are developing their own arsenal. If there is no arms race, it is because we are forfeiting the game. Testing and building is not going to start one. It is going to ensure we won’t lose it.