It starts with a classified document — a single presidential signature that quietly reopens one of the most complex chessboards in U.S. foreign policy.

When reports surfaced that Donald Trump had authorized new covert CIA activity in Venezuela, the headlines sounded dramatic. But as Ryan Berg, Director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Breaking Battlegrounds hosts Chuck Warren and Sam Stone, the truth is both more nuanced — and more consequential — than the headlines suggest.

“We should be honest about the fact that there has been covert action in Venezuela for a while,” Berg explained. “This latest presidential finding just opens new avenues — it’s not unprecedented. The real question is how far we’re willing to go this time.”

Berg noted that similar CIA authorizations existed during both the first Trump and Biden administrations, but most of the potential strategies — including efforts to pressure Venezuela’s military to flip sides — were left on the table.

“There were some really good ideas,” he recalled. “Including ways to prevent the military from getting paid unless they played a role in a peaceful democratic transition. They just didn’t execute them.”

Why Venezuela Still Matters

When co-host Sam Stone asked what a stable Venezuela might mean for the United States, Berg didn’t hesitate.

“Venezuela is at the center of so many of the U.S.’s biggest concerns in Latin America — counter-narcotics, migration, and China.”

More than eight million Venezuelans have fled the country, fueling a regional migration crisis. The Maduro regime’s deep ties to narcotrafficking and other illicit economies have destabilized its neighbors and stretched north to the U.S. border.

Even more troubling is Venezuela’s deep relationship with China, Russia, and Iran — nations using the country as a strategic foothold in the Western Hemisphere.

“No country in the region has received more Chinese money,” Berg said. “No country’s leaders have traveled to Beijing more. Venezuela has become a beachhead for our great power rivals.”

A shift in Venezuela’s alignment, he argued, would be a major strategic win for both U.S. security and regional stability.

The Bigger Picture

What happens next depends on how the Trump team interprets this new presidential finding. Will it mark a renewed effort to pressure Maduro’s regime, or simply another chapter in decades of half-measures?

As Berg put it, the outcome could determine whether the U.S. reasserts its influence in Latin America — or cedes even more ground to Beijing and Moscow.

Transcript

**Chuck Warren: **What do you think about Trump authorizing covert CIA action in Venezuela? And do we really have the assets to do covert CIA action in Venezuela?

**Ryan Berg: **Well, I think that we should be honest about the fact that there has been covert action in Venezuela for a while. There was. So what we got yesterday from the New York Times report was just a an indication that the president has done what’s called a presidential finding, which kind of opens up new avenues of potential CIA action. There was one of these in the first Trump administration. I believe there was also CIA action under the Biden administration.

Or potential CIA action in Venezuela. It really, it isn’t that big of a set of news items. It’s more, what are we going to be willing to do with this presidential finding that we might not have been able or willing to do in the first Trump administration or in the Biden administration? This has been publicly reported. It’s nothing that I’m sharing on the high side, on the top secret side here, but Wired magazine did a really interesting piece last year on CIA ideas that were almost implemented in the first Trump administration and frankly gentlemen, there were some really good ideas.

Including ways to prevent the military from getting paid unless they flip sides or played a productive part in the in peaceful democratic transition That was just one of them that I remember off the top of my head which which seemed You know if it could be executed well like like quite a good idea. They simply didn’t do it right and so the real question now is how far are we willing to go with this presidential finding not necessarily the revelation that the CIA could be active in?

**Sam Stone: **Ryan, let’s say we did go far enough and we created a more stable, you know, call it regime change, call it just a more stable Venezuela out of this situation. What would be the benefit to the U.S.?

**Ryan Berg: **Well, I think there would be tremendous benefits to the US and it would be downed across the across the region. I think for for for many of the greatest concerns that we have about Latin America, Venezuela is at its center. Right. And so if you think about the Trump administration’s priorities, you’ve got counter-narcotics, you’ve got migration, you’ve got China. Right. We obviously know the eight million people who have left Venezuela. We know right now that the press is on the Maduro regime because of its connection to to drug trafficking.

And we know over the last decade, decade and a half, how much that regime has become involved in other illicit economies as well. And then the China issue. No country has received more money in the Western Hemisphere than Venezuela. No country has traveled, has had its leaders travel to China more than Venezuela. Venezuela in many ways is kind of the beachhead for great power rivals or medium power rivals like Russia or Iran to set up in America’s shared neighborhood.

So having a government in power in Venezuela that not only helps with the security side of things, but also realigns Venezuela to become a more Western hemisphere country, less China, less Russia, less Iran, that would redound, I think, not just to the United States, but also to the broader region as well.

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