In the latest episode of Breaking Battlegrounds, hosts Chuck Warren and Sam Stone sat down with Daniel Di Martino, economist and Manhattan Institute fellow, to discuss the real fiscal costs — and benefits — of immigration. Di Martino’s latest research dives deep into how legal and illegal immigation shape America’s economic future, and the results may surprise you.

While immigration is often debated in emotional or political terms, Di Martino takes a hard look at the numbers. His analysis shows that legal immigrants tend to reduce the federal deficit, while illegal immigration contributes to it.

“The average legal immigrant that comes to America will actually reduce the deficit significantly,” Di Martino explained. “By several hundred thousand dollars over 30 years.”

“The average illegal immigrant,” he continued, “will increase the national debt by about $100,000 over that same period.”

It’s a striking contrast that underscores a key message: the structure of America’s immigration system — not immigration itself — determines whether it’s a fiscal asset or liability.

The Visa Fix: Prioritizing Skills and Wages

Di Martino argues that U.S. policymakers must rethink how visas are distributed. Current programs like the Diversity Visa Lottery, which allocates 55,000 green cards annually based on country of origin rather than skills or economic demand, are, in his view, outdated and inefficient.

“We shouldn’t have a diversity lottery,” he said. “We should give out more employment visas.”

Instead, Di Martino advocates expanding the EB-1 and EB-2 visa categories, which allow employers to sponsor highly skilled workers — many of whom have advanced degrees or specialized expertise. But he also emphasized that the system shouldn’t exclusively favor higher education — it should reward earning potential and real labor demand, too.

When host Sam Stone brought up the shortage of tradespeople in the U.S., Di Martino agreed that the system should recognize market realities:

“If there’s really a shortage of tradespeople, then wages will reflect that — and they should be able to get in through a wage-based system.”

A Smarter Immigration System

The takeaway from Di Martino’s research is clear: America doesn’t necessarily need fewer immigrants — it needs the right kind. By focusing on education, skills, and market-based wages, policymakers could turn immigration into a major economic advantage — and even help reduce the national debt.

As the immigration debate heats up again in Washington, Di Martino’s data-driven insights offer a compelling reminder: when done right, immigration isn’t just about who comes to America — it’s about how they help build it.

Transcript

Chuck Warren: Talk to us, what does legal status mean for your report if someone comes legally versus illegally? And we’ve got three minutes for this answer. Go ahead.

**Daniel Di Martino: **Yes. So the average legal immigrant that comes to America will actually reduce the deficit significantly.

**Chuck Warren: **How much?

**Daniel Di Martino: **Yeah, I’ll tell you right now, by several hundred thousand dollars over a period of, you know, 30 years, the average illegal immigrant will increase the national debt by about $100,000. A new one, over 30 years.

**Sam Stone: **That’s a pretty stark difference. And when we come back from the break, we will have a little bit more time. But I want to get into at that point, what kind of structure should US policymakers be looking for in terms of immigration, Chuck?

**Chuck Warren: **With our one, with our, we have a minute left for this question. So you wrote in this that we need to shift visas toward high skill categories. What are the type of high skill categories we need to shift those visas to?

**Daniel Di Martino: **Yes so all the category that allow an employer to sponsor a worker especially they’re called the EB 1 and EB 2 categories to just get any detail you need an advanced degree not even just a bachelor’s. It’s actually severely backlogged and the other hand we just randomly give out fifty five thousand green cards to people based on the country they are born and the diversity lottery we shouldn’t have a diversity lot in that we should give up more employment visas

Sam Stone: If we have just a minute here left, so I don’t want to get into a longer answer here But should we consider should the US consider given the deficit of tradespeople? That we create or focus on a category that includes people who are plumbers, electricians, skilled carpenters, all those things.

Daniel Di Martino: Well under my ideal system we wouldn’t discriminate on education but on pay so if you are a low-pay you know person who have a college degree you shouldn’t come here but if you if there is really a shortage of tradespeople than the wages will reflect on and they should be able to getting through a wage-based system.

**Sam Stone: **All right. We’re going to be coming back with more from Daniel Di Martino here in just a moment, folks.

Listen to the full episode of Breaking Battlegrounds anywhere you stream your podcasts!