If you love Donald Trump, the Iran deal is a brilliant move to end the war after destroying much of Iran’s military. If you hate him, it is worse than giving Poland to Nazi Germany. But in reality, this agreement will likely turn out not to matter much.
Here are the important clauses in the deal:
Israel can no longer attack Hezbollah in Lebanon, which will allow the terrorists to return to southern Lebanon with the ability to shoot missiles at northern Israel and invade it via land.
The United States will withdraw its naval blockade on Iran, allow Iran’s frozen assets to go into Iran, and has suspended oil sanctions. Here is the more interesting part: If there is a final agreement, Iran will get $300 billion in reparations.
Iran will stop attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and agree with Oman how to operate the strait. The United States acknowledges Iran’s sovereignty over the strait, which is actually international waters and not sovereign territory.
The United States and Iran will negotiate a permanent agreement over the next two months.
These are the bigger items in the deal. They don’t look good, but there are two important contexts to it.
First, Iran will not get the $300 billion until a final agreement, but there is no guarantee that there will be one. Iran will get something around $12 billion, according to reports, but estimates about the economic damage to Iran range from $150 billion to $700 billion. Even the lowest estimate is more than 10 times larger than the damage. Oil sales over the next two months will not make up for that, either, not even close. On top of these issues, Iran has suffered greatly militarily (no matter what the New Yorker and anti-American Democrats say) and has lost most of its experienced and smart leaders.
Second, this is a two-month agreement. If, after the two months, or likelier after the midterms, Trump decides to go back to war, he can reimpose all the sanctions, and Iran will still be worse off.
This still does not make up for a possible toll system in or acknowledging Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. But also, it will allow markets to stabilize before the midterms and gas prices to go down for American consumers.
As for Israel, this is a suboptimal situation, but it is important to remember that, like Iran, Hezbollah is also much weaker. Israel has been assaulting Hezbollah’s leadership and military capabilities on and off for the past two years. This is a much degraded Hezbollah, meaning that Israel is much safer than it was two years ago.
So, what is the right grade for this deal: pass or fail? Neither. The right grade is incomplete!
This is not the final thing. It is not good, and it is not terrible either. This freezes the status quo, until one side decides to break it. Furthermore, President Trump lacks the support of Congress and the American public to continue this war. Yesterday, Congress passed a “concurrent War Powers Resolution directing the President to remove U.S. Armed Forces from hostilities with Iran. The Senate passed the measure 50-48, following the House’s earlier 215-208 vote on June 3. This marks the first time such a resolution has cleared both chambers, representing a rare, bipartisan rebuke of the administration.”
It was madness for them to do that while the Trump Administration is in a 60-day negotiating period. I do not care who the president is, that action undercut our president in negotiations.
As clearer heads prevailed, two senators re-thought their vote, tying the President’s hands. As USA Today reported this morning, “Senators Rand Paul and Bill Cassidy switched their votes on a symbolic Senate resolution about a possible war with Iran after a heated Capitol Hill meeting with President Trump, changing the tally from 50‑48 against to 50‑47 in favor, a shift the president highlighted on Truth Social.”
So maybe the U.S. military will have time to recoup and come up with a new plan to open the Strait of Hormuz militarily and dismantle Iran’s toll system, if the president gives the green light, while Iran has to deal with economic ruin at home. It also gives the White House time to work with recalcitrant Republican Senators.
And you should ignore everyone who is forecasting the future of the Middle East based on a two-month agreement. If there is a permanent agreement, then, we can get worried.
